Friday, December 25, 2009

Does the Taliban know it's Christmas?

I read recently in the newspaper that the Pakistani government is ending its military offensive in Waziristan, surely a welcome gift to the enemy.  What remains unclear, is if any strategic objective was attained by the very necessary offensive, or if this was simply a facade to placate NATO.  According to their spokespeople, Pakistan killed hundreds of enemy militants, but according to American military intelligence there is little to no evidence of any heavy fighting.  It would appear that the 4 months warning that Pakistan issued to the people of Waziristan that they were coming was sufficient time for combatants to clear out.  All this begs the question, was this a feigned offensive?  Did they ever intend to inflict a death blow to our enemy?

Meanwhile, the withdrawal comes amid speculation that Pakistani military leaders may attempt a coup to overthrow the democratically elected government.  Government Ministers have been prevented from leaving the country in some instances, where police made it clear that they take orders from Generals and Judges, not elected politicians.  The big question is, what if anything should NATO do if a coup takes place, and if the new leadership will be allied with radical Islamists?  I'm sure India already has a battle plan to invade Pakistan if the worst case scenario comes to fruition, but if the inmates take over the asylum, will Obama have the stones to do what needs to be done?

It is difficult to accurately measure what if anything was achieved in the Waziristan campaign, as the Pakistani military did not invite Wolf Blitzer to come along with them.  They control the media message in their conflict zone, and thus we are at their mercy for information.  I have always maintained that there needs to be a joint military operation between Pakistan and NATO inside sovereign Pakistani territory to pound the militant command and control like a hammer and anvil.  But I suppose if Pakistan never intended to crush the Islamic militants, then it would be counter to their objective to invite a superior fighting force to accomplish what they don't want accomplished.

I suppose all that I can really do from my perch is just keep my fingers crossed and keep my faith in the brave men and women of our Armed Forces.

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