Any pundit calling current polling "statistically tied" is mistaken and must be corrected. Both Ipsos and Ekos are reporting virtually identical post budget numbers with Conservatives at 34%, Liberals at 28%, the NDP at 18%, and the Greens at 10%. Ipsos is accused of being right wing, Ekos of being left wing, and right now they're saying the same thing. For seat counts, that translates to roughly 128 Tory, 90 Liberal, 41 NDP, 48 Bloc, plus one or two independents. The Tories would lose one or two big names, but the bulk of the team would remain intact. We are dangerously close to the threshold where Liberal + NDP = more votes than Tories. The Bloc could abstain and confidence motions could be defeated with two parties.
By far the largest disparity between Ekos and Ipsos is British Columbia. In the 2008 Election the Tories scored 44% of the popular vote. Ipsos has them currently at 43%, Ekos has them at 32%. That is a discrepancy of roughly 200,000 votes! Over a month ago I blogged about the impossibility of some of Ekos regional breakdowns, such as how they had the Tories down 14% in BC, but only 8% in Vancouver where half the votes are. For it to be true there would have to be a catastrophic collapse in the interior, the probability of which is extremely low considering some of our safest BC seats reside there.
And to the Liberals bragging about recent poll numbers, note that neither Ekos nor Ipsos has the Liberals above 28.9%. If the Tories are down the votes are not going to the Liberal party; and while they would never admit it publicly, that is a big problem. Do you really think that the one in ten Tory voters who told the telephone machine they were voting Green instead of Tory are there to stay? I can guarantee you those votes are very elastic.
Has anyone actually been polled by these two?
ReplyDeleteThe Liberals need to catch the Tories out in a first rate scandal, like Afghan "detainee" abuse or some Canadian of convenience being ignored in a prison in his home Country, then they might have a chance of a minority.
ReplyDeleteThe Liberals know what a bunch of brainless beer guzzlers we peasants are, so they'll keep trying to find the scandal of the century to tilt the polls their way.
Ipsos,Gallup,MacIntyre,Ekos, all are for hire, so anything they come up with should be taken with a block of salt. I mean those forty pound blocks farmers use for their herds of cattle.
When I lived in Vancouver, I used to get "polled" by one of the companies mentioned above every week, but since I've moved to the sticks, haven't had a single call from any of them.
I'm slightly hurt. And I wonder why.
DMorris
"bfairey said...
ReplyDeleteHas anyone actually been polled by these two?"
Not since the last time they called me when I warned them if they called me again I'd force them to read Iggy's latest book.