There are some Bloc MPs vulnerable to Liberal challengers in and around Montreal, but the further you get from Montreal, the greater the probability of a Tory winning a seat (with some exceptions). Back in September when the Liberals were blowing smoke signals about forcing an election, I did some Quebec electoral math. This was well before the by-election in Montmagny.
Gilles Duceppe: Friends and Enemies
September 5th, 2009
All this begs the question, if there are Quebec voters in play for a change of mind, in which of the following scenarios would the Bloc LOSE the most seats?
A) One fifth of Bloc votes switch to NDP?
B) One fifth of Bloc votes switch to Liberal?
C) One fifth of Bloc votes switch to Tory?
D) One fifth of Bloc votes switch to Green?
Answer
C) If one fifth of the Bloc crossed to Tory, the Bloc would lose 13 seats and the Conservatives win Richmond--Arthabaska, Drummond, Chicoutimi, Abitibi, Louis-Hébert, Québec, Montmagny
Question: If the Bloc were able to seduce voters from another party, under which scenario would they GAIN the most seats?
A) One fifth of NDP votes switch to Bloc?
B) One fifth of Liberal votes switch to Bloc?
C) One fifth of Tory votes switch to Bloc?
D) One fifth of Green votes switch to Bloc?
Answer
C) If one fifth of the Quebec Tory voters switched to the Bloc, the Bloc gains 5 seats and the Conservatives lose Jonquière--Alma, Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean, Pontiac, Charlesbourg, and Beauport.
There you have it. The Bloc has the most to gain by converting Tory voters, and the most to lose by losing voters to the Tories. Given the Quebec-Only negotiating strategy deployed by the Bloc, how is this partnership supposed to prevail without the rest of the country paying a financial penalty for avoiding an unwanted election? The Majority-Question is, what would need to happen for a Bloc voter to vote Tory, and what would have to happen for a Tory voter to vote Bloc? That question, I do not have the answer to...
Exceptional research Iceman!
ReplyDelete''..what would need to happen for a Bloc voter to vote Tory...''
When the BLOC stops ''bringin' home the bacon''
20 years of BLOC whining, is starting to fall on deaf ears
case in point
For over 30 years Quebec MPs (Liberal and Conservative) had enough clout in caucus, to keep a National Regulator off every governments agenda.
But not now.
Where every PM before him did not,
Harper has the courage to finally do what is good for Canada.
So Quebecers should take notice,
Liberals and their media tell us the next election will produce a Harper government (and so do the polls)
If Quebec wants their clout back,
send the federalists most likely to form government back to Parliament,
the BLOC just ain't bringin' home the bacon....
A Tory majority lies in the GTA. PMSH has to start now campaigning in the GTA. Barbeques, Charity events, Fundraisers . We need a massive TV campaign. Threaten Zhohar and Bucky and Public Housing Jack in their Toronto Bastion. That is the path to a Majority.
ReplyDeleteVoters in Quebec, Western Canada rejected the PC led Kim Campbell and punished them.
ReplyDeleteThe voters in Quebec will have to weigh the increased EQ. payout promises of the NDP-Liberal coalition propped up by the separatists.
As I have said the Ontario-West (outside Toronto) have already decided.
Toronto and GTA are in play and the media, allies to entitlements are worried.
The Global warmists SPIN machine are losing, as is traditional media is being exposed for downplaying climategate, their attacks on dissenting opinion.
The Liberals have been reduced to a Van-Tor-Mtl party since Trudeau War Measures Act-NEP. 1970's
David Lewis took over from Tommy Douglas who was vocal about War Measures Act. Lewis allowed Trudeau liberals to recover and govern over PC Stanfield in 1972.
Lewis and NDP paid for it 1974 losing half their seats and his own in York South Weston.
Broadbent did the same deal, handed the next leader a poisoned chalice.
Layton led NDP have recovered from 8.5% in Ontario 2000.
Will Layton repeat same mistake and wipe out the NDP for a decade by 'making parliament work' with the Liberals?
I've read all three of Dan Brown's Robert Langdon books. Actually, when I envision the Langdon character, Ignatieff comes to mind instead. I'm not saying that Iggy is a Catholic-hater, but he seems like the guy who actually fits Langdon's profile.
ReplyDeleteDead on research on this faux scare!
ReplyDeleteThe only problem is that the Tories are in the elctoral basement in Quebec. Polling has the CONS running 4th or 5th. The CONS will lose seats in Quebec, the only question is: how many.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, I'd like to see the poll that has the Tories in 5th place in Quebec.
ReplyDelete