Liberal donor and pollster Frank Graves has managed to produce a new set of polling numbers that he insists shows that the Green Party would win two seats if an election were held right now (though not in Saanich). If you take the 2008 election results and shave 8% off the Tory vote, add 3% to the Liberals, 1% to the NDP, and 4% to the Green Party; the seat count changes to 108 Tory, 105 Liberal, 43 NDP, 50 Bloc, 2 Independents, and zero Greens. The two best Ontario ridings (where Graves alleges they will win seats) are Owen Sound and Guelph. Even with the new numbers, the Greens would finish 3,000 votes behind the Tories in the first and over 6,000 votes behind the Liberals in the other.
Elizabeth May has a problem in Saanich. Gary Lunn is vulnerable, but not to her. The Liberal Party runs strong in that riding and with a projected 27,000 votes to Lizzy's projected 9,000 votes. At $2 per vote, the Liberals would be giving up $54,000 if they ceded their candidate to help the Greens. That isn't going to happen.
Summer polling numbers shouldn't mean all that much. Fewer people are home to answer Frank's phone calls.
Frank has it wrong because of the fact (and you have to be real here), that the Greens will get whitewashed come the next election. I would put up my paycheck against his on that prediction in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteOne day, he's sensible, the next - delusional - never consistent.
May will have a great deal of difficulty retaining her own seat within the party as there is rustling afoot to give her the old heave-ho.
Not something to look forward to, however, you live by the sword and die by the sword.
It will be interesting to see when the ground shakes and the grand shuffle begins.
Here's the problem for the CPC :
ReplyDelete1. Green support will fade but not to the CPC.
2. Environics and Graves have CPC support slipping, this is a first in quite some time when Parliament is NOT in session.
3. The Liberal Express tour has helped Iggnatieff more than most would have thought.
4. Things won't be pretty for the CPC in the fall, the good stuff was all last winter and spring (Olympics, G20, Queen's Visit)
Frank is a fraud...the CBC is a fraud...cut their funding and make them compete with private broadcasters
ReplyDeleteThe Liberals were ahead in the polls last summer when Parliament was not in session. They fell considerably once Parliament resumed. If you look at all the sessions since Iggy has been leader, Liberal poll numbers have declined while Parliament is in session. He doesn't do well in the job, and he skips a lot of votes.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that you would classify the G20 as "the good stuff". Here I thought the government was taking heat for that one.
If we have an election, that's super. The Conservatives will win even if it's another minority. But if there's no election, the status quo is working great:
ReplyDelete1. The minority parliament means that fundraising calls to Conservative supporters have a built-in sense of urgency.
2. Volunteers stay alert (not ready -- too hard to sustain -- but not dormant either).
3. The gov't stays disciplined. I cite the attendance records that the Iceman has brought to our attention on this blog.
4. Blogging Tories continues to grow and counter the negative spin from the MSM.
5. The opposition parties continue to show what they're made of. In the case of the Liberals, not much of anything. For the NDP, hapless and incurable idealogues. The Bloc is yesterday's party. And the Greens will never win seats but will bleed support away from the Liberals and NDP.
What's not to love about the status quo?
There's a great deal of "ifs" in Mr. Graves calculations. If raindrops turned to pennies we'd all be rich too.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone takes time to listen to Frank Graves - they have holes in their heads. What he tried to do - was all along make it look like the Tories were edging upward... then with Iggy and his big bus tour - fudge the numbers so it looks like Iggy was accomplishing something.... These numbers do not make sense, if the MSM would report the blunders Iggy makes each day, his numbers would be so low, they couldn't be counted.. I can't wait for Fox News North to come on board and counters some of these liberal corrupt reporting...and again ask liberal Frank a few questions along with Barton - why she insists on having all liberal panels as well as Tabor and her liberal panel of Travers and Galloway....
ReplyDeleteOne of the big unknowns is how much the Libs and Dippers are compromised by their financial situations. They each spent around $17 million, less than 2 years ago. And I think they each borrowed some money too.
ReplyDeleteJack is talking tough, like we need an election, but that is more directed at his base. Iggy is pretty well sticking to the "Canadians don't want an election" line.
It's hard to tell if Iggy even calls the final shot, on spending all this money on an election. I got the sense, with Dion in early 2008, that he lost control of how much he could spend on various things.
But $17 million every two years is quite a burden for the Lib and Dipper donors.
I rarely make a point of talking about a single Ekos poll unless I am having fun over at Lib blogs.
ReplyDeleteTalking heads can produce any narrative they like, but ballots counted in November 2009 removed any doubt.
The alternative government in waiting can't fake the fundraising numbers or the CGI the crowds for the Return of the King.
A closer examination of the tour, the amount of face time without anything of substance is proving this is a photo op.
If you repeat the SAME attack lines on tour you used in Question Period without any specific details of WHY YOU should be elected is a defensive strategy.
The MSM has spun this fairytale before and about support dropping off for "x" reasons.
The Liberals may have learned to not pre-announce "Time Is Up", they may forget to whip 30 MPs to NOT show up this time.
Pundits Guide has them up 1 million from last year. (She also has a question about some potential errors)
The Big Fish were tapped out in the first half of 2009 and they did not have any capacity for the 3rd or 4th quarter.
If the CPC want to trigger the election they just have to make the campaign reform to tighten up the rules on loans a confidence matter.
I have lost count how many tours, meetings have gone down in flames after being hyped as something trans formative.
It is a shame Liberals refuse to provide a responsible alternative and introduce policy for debate in parliament.