Today's poll question, do you expect a federal election in 2010? When I asked you this question in April, nearly 70% of you said no. According to Susan Delacourt Liberal MPs are preparing for a fall election, and speculation from NDP strategists is that the Tories are preparing to take down their own government. What do you think? I have assembled some pros and cons for each side, and your feedback is encouraged. Why should the Conservatives want or not want an election? Why should the Liberals? The problem for whoever may want election is that if the government is collapsed so soon after the last election, the party responsible will pay a price at the polls. Election fatigue has set in among Canadians, which is why we need a majority. Only one party is anywhere close enough to deliver a majority.
Conservatives should want an election because:
*Liberal Party will have spent a big chunk of their savings on the summer tour, and they may want to trigger an election before Iggy can refill the bank accounts.
*There is a strong likelihood that there will be another economic downturn, though not as severe as the last. If the TSX tanks again, Tories will be very vulnerable to the opposition.
Conservatives should NOT want an election because:
*Polling suggests they are unlikely to win a majority if an election were held right now.
Liberals should want an election because:
*Flow their summer tour directly into an election campaign to maintain momentum.
*After an election, they can do a leadership review.
*If a coalition treaty has been reached, they will want to trigger it sooner rather than later.
Liberals should NOT want an election because:
*Need to refill bank accounts after summer tour before election campaign.
*Polling suggests they don't have strong enough support to form government. Why spend what little money you have on a national election campaign if there is a low probability of winning? They need to hope that the LPC and NDP can win 155 seats combined, at which point they can vote against the throne speech and ask the new GG if they can form government. They have to realize that a coalition with the Bloc will not be palatable with Canadians.
CORRECTION: I received an E-Mail from Susan Delacourt clarifying, she did not say that they were told prepare. She was not told that the leader's office instructed MPs to prepare for an election. Her words were that an election was likely and: "the Liberals that I've talked to on the road, the candidates and MPs, certainly are planning for that."
Susan wrote in an e-mail to me:
"Though I believe I said a lot of Liberal MPs are talking about whether there will be an election; mentioning nothing about any orders. But if I'd been asked what Ignatieff's office was telling them, it would not be as you've cast it. Frankly, I just think they're gossiping, and significantly, they all believe if there's an election, it will be because Harper provokes it, as he did in 2008."
"Coalition treaty has been reached, they will want to trigger it sooner rather than later".
ReplyDeleteMr. Ignatiev and Jack Layton embraced at Quidi Vidi, I think there may be some progressive flirtation going on.
And THE MEDIA definetly want an election so they claim their rightful position both in the Opposition Parties and in the Senate and in your mind.
ReplyDeleteThe liberals need and want an election because they have too many friends to pay for contributing their time energy in hiding what was done for canadians and canada by the prime minister stephen harper.
The liberals are not alone anymore if they do return the ndp and the bloc will be there with them giving orders so would the radical groups.
They liberals and the ndp and the bloc want to bring down the cconservative government because.....?
A good strategic rundown, Iceman; thanks. Not sure of the outcome, but I believe we'll see a by-election called this weekend for Winnipeg North at least, and if the government believes its messaging tests sufficiently well, who knows ...
ReplyDeleteI am having a really difficult time finding a picture of Ignatieff and Layton greeting at the Regatta.
ReplyDeleteThere won't be a fall election, because Alberta and Ontario will be doing their Municipal elections, and New Brunswick will have their provincial.
ReplyDeleteIt will be too confusing and difficult to run a federal election during these 3 major elections. And some candidates may come from a local council, mayor or mla pool. The next federal window will be in the winter or spring. (probably Confidence vote on the Budget in the spring).
No need too Iceman, just show their confirmed signed signatures on the Coalition agreement, which indicates that all three parties share the same bond- Coalition.
ReplyDeleteWhenever the election comes the media will push for a minority government. Minority government will equal chance of a coalition, and that's better for sales.
ReplyDeleteAnd to Susan Delacourt, every single summer that Ignatieff has spent as Liberal leader, he has returned in the fall demanding an election. You and your Liberal friends might have Sept 2008 fresh on your brains, but Sept 2009 is fresher on the minds of Canadians.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with the Sept 2009 election demand was that they did not negotiate with the NDP first, and Layton left them high and dry. If there is a coalition agreement prior to a fall return fresh of a pseudo campaign, it will be much easier for Iggy to get the election he wanted last year.
I do not see that it is anyone's interest to hold an election in the in near term. Conservatives will hold their position. The balance of power will be spread among the other parties, conspiracy theories on coalitions notwithstanding.
ReplyDeleteLiberals amongst the Main Stream Media who have been rightly snubbed by the Conservatives will continue to fulminate to no avail. Most thinking people who pay attention see through their guff. No issue, in particular, has coalesced in the plebian's eye to make a great difference. The people do see that the Conservatives have led very successfully without too many gaffes compared to the former serious gaffes by the Liberals.
I'll stick to my estimate of a 40 % chance of a Fall election. My sense is that Nicholson will be tabling an omnibus crime bill. And after that, Flaherty will bring in his economic update.
ReplyDeleteIt really depends on how much hardball Harper plays with what he puts in those bills. The polls will be a big factor.
We want as much legislation passed as possible. And we need the 8 Libs and 12 Dippers actually VOTING on the firearms bill.
Every election is a big Liberal fund raiser thanks to the $1.95 per vote party welfare. They need the money too.
ReplyDeleteResiding in BC, I doubt Harper would get many votes. BC citizens, have taken note, of Campbell and Harper's very close relationship. Both of them use, some low down, underhanded tactics. Harper, also lied to the citizens, regarding the HST. On TV, I heard, two M.P's, from the east say, Harper, is a fascist, and too stubborn to work with. So, for sure, not Conservative. Iggy also lied about the HST. Just the word Liberal, is enough for BC citizens, to turn away from that party. What party, is willing to stomp out corruption? To stop giving, banks, big business, gas and oil companies, billions of our tax dollars? And, stop giving, these large corporations, huge tax reductions? All of those give-a-way taxes, was a motion, passed in the Federal House, I watched it on TV. The entire House, passed that motion. Canada, is a cesspool of corruption, and, will stay that way, no-one wants to lose their cash cow. So, that leaves, the Greens, or an Independent. The NDP have mostly been silent. Government, is no more, what is good for the people, the provinces, nor the country. Corruption and greed, is what governs this country,
ReplyDeleteWhile the popular vote may favor the lib/dip coalition. It does not coelate into a equivelent seat count, especially if the greens have to really park there vote in one the other camps
ReplyDeleteI monitor
http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2009/ for accurate figures, and distrust EKOS and Harris Decimas polling techniques and questions, I see a similar vote as 2008 with a comfortable minority for 2 more years